The financial system is stable and resilient and systemic risk is moderate
The Polish financial system is functioning in a stable manner and systemic risk is at a moderate level.
Financial Stability Report, December 2019
The rate of lending growth and the level of debt relative to GDP remain moderate, and the structure of financing of banks is stable. The Polish banking system, as a whole, remains resistant to shocks due to the accumulated capital and low level of financial leverage. The vast majority of banks with a surplus meet capital requirements and short-term and long-term liquidity standards.
Certain processes and phenomena requires special attention:
- difficult financial situation of certain credit institutions, which may indirectly affect other banks, mainly if the need arises to replenish the deposit guarantee fund or carry out resolution;
- uncertainty over the impact of court decisions regarding FX housing loans (among others, following the judgement of the Court of Justice of the European Union) on banks particularly involved in granting these loans and the banking sector as a whole;
- low profitability of some (mostly smaller and medium-sized) banks, which impede their ability to raise capital, maintain resilience to shocks and to expand activity;
- growing share of high-value consumer loans with long maturities may, during the economic downturn, be the source of higher credit risk than the remaining part of the banks’ portfolio;
- the growing value of housing loans originated in the environment of low interest rates and increased price growth on the real estate market;
- development challenges faced by the cooperative banking sector, which is characterized, among others, by low efficiency and an insufficient degree of integration;
- greater role of the government sector as an owner of a large portion of the financial system (including the banking sector, in particular) and, at the same time, as its supervisor and debtor (through the government bond portfolio);
- need for the adjustment of the WIBOR and WIBID reference rates to the requirements of the BMR effective in the EU.
In the opinion of the Narodowy Bank Polski, the implementation of the following recommendations would be conducive to maintaining Poland’s financial system stability and reducing the identified risk factors: