Narodowy Bank Polski

Research & Conferences

Publishing central bank forecasts in theory and practice

Conference programme Useful information

Most central banks with direct inflation targets are communicating their inflation and output forecasts to the public. Some banks have gone one step further by showing their expected future path of interest rates. A comparison of the methods applied by central banks in preparing and releasing their forecasts indicates that in many areas there are no unique solutions. Moreover, the profession is still far from consensus as regards macroeconomic effects of forecasts publication. The conference aims at providing a forum for the presentation and discussion of the research in areas closely related to the best practices in publishing forecasts by central banks. In particular, the following topics will be covered:

  • the macroeconomic effects of forecast publication,
  • the impact of publishing macroeconomic forecasts on financial markets,
  • methods used to prepare macroeconomic forecasts,
  • the experience with communicating macroeconomic forecasts to the public.

The special focus of the conference is to provoke discussion on the subject of publishing the future path of interest rates.

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 6.75
Lombard rate 7.25
Deposit rate 6.25
Rediscount rate 6.80
Discount rate 6.85

Exchange rates

Table of 2023-01-31
1 EUR4.7089
1 USD4.3480
1 CHF4.6918
1 GBP5.3595
100 JPY3.3344

Economic outlook

Monthly data

Quarterly data

Financial markets



Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa

+48 22 185 10 00
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
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