Consumers on Future Price Developments
NBP data: Individuals surveyed in August expect average inflation of 4.2% in the next 12 months.
On 31 August, the NBP published the monthly data on individuals’ inflation expectations. The release shows an average inflation rate of 4.2% expected by respondents in the next 12 months. This corresponds exactly with the June CPI figure, which was known to the public at the time of the survey. The survey of households is always conducted by the IPSOS polling company in the first half of the month. Thus, the August survey preceded the announcement of the July CPI figure of 4.1%.
NBP analysts emphasise that the opinions on inflation formed by individuals, who do not deal with economic issues on a professional level, are greatly affected by current inflation levels.
Inflation expectations are more optimistic in August compared to July, when the anticipated inflation rate stood at 4.7%. For the last four months, the expected CPI index has been lower or equal to the actual CPI figure.
However, the structure of expectations has deteriorated slightly. The largest group, i.e. 47.6% of respondents expect prices to continue rising at an unchanged rate. 23.6% expect inflation to accelerate and 17.6% believe it to slow down in the future. In comparison with the July data, the group of pessimists has somewhat expanded at the expense of optimists.
The NBP does not only examine inflation expectations of individuals, but also those of the financial sector analysts as well as enterprises; presently it also intends to launch a survey targeted at professional forecasters. Inflation expectations of various social groups are one of the inputs considered by central banks in setting their monetary policy.
See also: Information on individuals’ inflation expectations in August 2011