August 2011 Core Inflation Indices
Inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.7% in August, having risen by 0.3 pp. on the level recorded in the previous three months.
On 20 September, the NBP announced data on August core inflation. They show an increase in all the four measures. Thus, inflation:
- net of administered prices (subject to state control) amounted to 3.9%, as against 3.7% in July and 4.0% in June;
- net of the most volatile prices (in the analysed period) amounted to 3.6% as against 3.3% in July and 3.2% in June;
- net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.7%, as against 2.4% in July and June;
- the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (which excludes the impact of 15% of the prices recording the highest and lowest growth) amounted to 4.2% – previously, 4% and 3.8%, respectively.
Thus core inflation measures rose by a factor similar to that observed in consumer inflation (CPI), which was running at 4.3% in August as compared with 4.1% in July.
The National Bank of Poland calculates, on a monthly basis, four core inflation indices which provide a good background to understanding movements in the CPI. This is because the CPI on its own shows change in the average price of a whole range (basket) of basic commodities. By calculating core inflation indices, it is possible to capture price changes in the particular segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified better and its future trends forecast more accurately. Moreover, it is possible to determine to what extent a given inflation level is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it results from short-lived price hikes caused by one-off factors. Analysts typically address the index of inflation net of food and energy prices. It shows price developments that can be affected by the central bank’s monetary policy, as opposed to energy (including fuel) prices, which are determined in the global markets and are often prone to speculation. Food prices, on the other hand, are closely related to weather conditions and current government intervention in agricultural markets.
See: NBP information on August 2011 core inflation