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Expectations of future price developments

Date: 31-10-2011

NBP data: Inflation expectations of individuals expressed in mid-October were slightly less optimistic than those observed in September.

The National Bank of Poland released on 31 October the latest data on households’ inflation expectations. The largest – and a fairly stable - group of respondents continues to expect prices to grow at the current pace over the next 12 months. In mid-October such an opinion was expressed by 48.6% of respondents, as compared to 48.4% a month before. Yet, there has/had been a slight increase in the share of pessimists (from 19.0% to 22.3%) expecting prices to grow more rapidly, and an increase in the share of optimists (from 19.9% to 16.4%) anticipating price growth to be more muted in the 12 months to come. The average inflation rate as expected by individuals during this period stood at 4.2% in October as compared to 3.8% in September.

Let’s note that the actual inflation rate known to respondents at the time of the survey – the September CPI - stood at 4.3% and was slightly above the expected average.

The National Bank of Poland studies, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of enterprises, individuals and financial analysts. At central banks pursuing the direct inflation targeting strategy they are one of the inputs to monetary policy decisions.

See also: Information on individuals’ inflation expectations in October 2011

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