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Higher core inflation indices

Date: 22-11-2011

NBP Data:In October, inflation net of food and energy amounted to 2.8%. In September it stood at 2.6%.

On 22 November 2011, the National Bank of Poland published data on core inflation in October. Compared to September, all four indices increased. Thus:

  • inflation net of administered prices (subject to state control) amounted to 3.9%, as against 3.5% in September and 3.9% in August;
  • inflation net of the most volatile prices stood at 3.7%, as against 3.5% in September and 2.7% in August;
  • inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.8%, as against 2.6% in September and 2.7% in August;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean inflation (eliminating the impact of the 15% of the prices recording the highest and lowest growth) amounted to 4.3%, as compared to 4.2% in each September and August.

Core inflation indices rose following the increase in CPI inflation which amounted to 4.3% in October, as against 3.9% in September and 4.3% in August. The National Bank of Poland calculates, on a monthly basis, four core inflation indices which provide a good background to understanding movements in the CPI. This is because the CPI on its own shows the average change in the prices of a whole range (basket) of basic commodities. By calculating core inflation indices, it is possible to capture price changes in particular segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified better and its future trends forecast more accurately. Moreover, it allows to determine to what extent a given inflation level is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by short-lived price hikes resulting from one-off factors. Analysts typically address the index of inflation net of food and energy prices. It shows price developments that can be affected, to a relatively large extent, by the central bank’s monetary policy. On the other hand, energy (including fuel) prices are determined in the domestic rather than global markets and are often prone to speculation. As regards food prices, they are closely related to weather conditions and current developments in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See: NBP information on October 2011 core inflation

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