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Consumer Expectations of Future Inflation

Date: 30-11-2011

NBP data: In mid-November, individuals expected average inflation in Poland to stand at 4.2% in the next 12 months.

The latest data on households’ inflation expectations, released by the National Bank of Poland on 30 November, indicate rising negative sentiment amongst the public, as compared with the previous survey conducted at the end of October. The percentage of respondents expecting price growth to accelerate over the next 12 months had risen from 22.3% in October to 28.0% in November. A slower pace of price growth is anticipated by 16.4% of the respondents, the figure having fallen from 14.2% recorded in October. Those believing that prices will continue to rise at the current pace still account for the largest and the most stable group of respondents. In mid-November, 47.9% of the respondents were of this opinion, as against 48.6% in the previous round. The average inflation rate as expected by individuals in the next 12 months is to stand at 4.2%, thus remaining unchanged on its October figure.

The survey was conducted in mid-November, when the October CPI of 3.9% had already been announced.

The National Bank of Poland regularly examines inflation expectations of individuals, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These provide one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: Individuals’ inflation expectations, November 2011.

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