Core Inflation Lower in September 2011
NBP data: Three out of four core inflation indices declined. Inflation net of food and energy prices fell to 2.6%.
According to data on core inflation in September, published by the NBP on 20 October, three out of four core inflation indices declined and one remained at the August level. Thus,:
- inflation net of administered prices (subject to state control) amounted to 3.5%, as against 3.9% in August and 3.7% in July;
- inflation net of the most volatile prices stood at 3.5% as against 3.6% and 3.3% in the two preceding months;
- inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.6%, as against 2.7% in August and 2.4% in July;
- the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean inflation (not accounting for the impact of 15% of the prices recording the highest and lowest growth) amounted to 4.2% – as compared to 4.2% and 4.0% in August and July, respectively.
In September, CPI inflation went down to 3.9% - in August it stood at 4.3% and in July at 4.1%.
The National Bank of Poland calculates, on a monthly basis, four core inflation indices which provide a good background to understanding movements in the CPI. This is because the CPI on its own shows changes in the average price of a whole range (basket) of basic commodities. By calculating core inflation indices, it is possible to capture price changes in particular segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified better and its future trends forecast more accurately. Moreover, it allows to determine to what extent a given inflation level is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by short-lived price hikes resulting from one-off factors. Analysts typically address the index of inflation net of food and energy prices. It shows price developments that can be affected, to a relatively large extent, by the central bank’s monetary policy. On the other hand, energy (including fuel) prices are determined in the domestic, rather than in the global markets and are often prone to speculation. As regards food prices, they are closely related to weather conditions and current developments in the domestic and global agricultural markets.
See also: Information of the NBP on core inflation in September 2011