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Core inflation in July

Date: 21-08-2012

NBP data: In July, two of the four inflation measures decreased, with the other two remaining stable. Inflation net of food and energy prices remained unchanged at 2.3%.

On 21 August, the National Bank of Poland released data on core inflation in July. Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices reached 3.5%, as against 3.8% in June and 3.0% in May;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 3.3%, i.e. the level observed both in June and May;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 2.3%, again unchanged on the May and June figure;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket with the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 3.9%, as against 4.0% in June and 3.9% in May.
The previously announced CPI (consumer inflation) index, calculated by GUS, stood at 4.0% in July as compared with 4.3% in June and 3.6% in May.

Every month the National Bank of Poland computes four core inflation indices, thus helping to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. This is because, while the CPI shows the average price movement across a whole basket of consumer goods, by calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. This does not include energy prices (including those of fuels), which are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets – sometimes as a result of speculation – or food prices, closely depending on, among other factors, weather conditions and trends prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.

See the NBP announcement on July 2012 core inflation.

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