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Individuals’ Inflation Expectations in August

Date: 31-08-2012

NBP data: After two months of decline, consumers' inflation expectations rose in August 2012. Private individuals believe inflation rate will average 4.4% over the next 12 months.

On 31 August, the National Bank of Poland posted the monthly release on inflation expectations of private individuals. The composite index of average inflation as expected by private individuals over the coming 12 months amounted to 4.4%. Looking back, the same index reached as much as 5.2% in January 2012, to subsequently embark on a downward trend which took it down to 3.5%.
At the time of the survey, the July CPI 4.3% - also considerably higher than in the previous month (3.6%) - was already known to the public.

Interestingly, August saw a slight decline - from 23.3% in July to 22.4% - in the percentage of the public expecting prices rise faster in the coming 12 months than recently. The share of individuals believing prices to continue to grow at the same pace increased significantly - from 47.5% to 55.1%. At the same time, the share of optimists anticipating inflation to decelerate shrank markedly (from 20% to 13.6%).

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, August 2012

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