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Inflation expectations of individuals

Date: 31-07-2012

NBP data: July 2012 saw consumer inflation expectations fall again. Consumers expect the average inflation rate in the coming 12-month period to stand at 3.5%.

According to the monthly report on household inflation expectations released by the National Bank of Poland on 31 July 2012, Poles do not express any serious concerns about uncontrolled rise in prices. The synthetic measure of average inflation as expected by individuals over the coming 12-month period reached 3.5% in July 2012, remaining consistent with the NBP’s inflation target. In June 2012, it stood at 3.7% as compared to 4.3% in May and April.

The percentage of persons claiming that the coming 12 months will see prices growing faster than recently has declined marginally, to 23.3% from 23.6% in June, in contrast to a surge in the number of optimists. As many as 20% of survey respondents are confident that prices will be rising less rapidly than before. In June 2012 this opinion was shared by 18.1% of the respondents as compared to a mere 12.3% in April. The largest group of respondents (47.5%) believe that price growth will remain unchanged over the upcoming 12-month period.

The National Bank of Poland analyses, on a regular basis, inflation expectations expressed not only by individuals but also by entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. They are one of the inputs to monetary policy decisions.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, July 2012

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 6.75
Lombard rate 7.25
Deposit rate 6.25
Rediscount rate 6.80
Discount rate 6.85

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