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Core inflation in March

Date: 16-04-2013

NBP data: Inflation net of food and energy prices in March in 2013 stood at 1.0 % (as compared to the corresponding period of 2012) and equalled the March CPI figure.

According to the National Bank of Poland release posted on 16 April 2013, all core inflation measures at the end of March 2013 declined further in year-on-year terms. Thus:

  • inflation excluding administered (state-controlled) prices stood at 0.7% as compared to 1.0% in February and 1.5% in January 2013;
  • inflation excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 1.5% as compared to 1.7% in February and 1.9% in January;
  • inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.0% as compared to 1.1% in February and 1.4% in January;
  • the so-called 15% trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket featuring the highest and lowest growth rates) stood at 1.3% as against 1.6% in February and 1.8% in January.

The CPI (consumer inflation) index as calculated by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) – announced the day before –stood in March at 1.0% (y/y) as compared with 1.3% in February and 1.7% in January.

TThe National Bank of Poland computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods; by calculating core inflation indices, we address price changes in various segments of this basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on such factors as the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.

See also: The NBP announcement on March 2013 core inflation »

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