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Core Inflation in July

Date: 16-08-2013

NBP data: In July, the CPI index rose to 1.1% y/y. Inflation net of food and energy prices reached 1.4% y/y at the end of the month, i.e. 0.6% more than in June.

Narodowy Bank Polski release on core inflation in July 2013, published on 16 August, shows a rise in all of its four measures.
Thus, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices, reached 0.8 % y/y, as against 0.1% in June and 0.4% in May;
  • excluding the most volatile prices, posted 1.7% y/y as against 1.4% in June and 1.5% in May;
  • net of food and energy prices, amounted to 1.4% y/y, as against 0.9% in June and 1.0% in May;
  • the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket with the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 1.0% as against 0.8% in June and 1.1% in May.

The CPI (consumer inflation) index, announced by GUS on 14 August, stood at 1.1% y/y in July, as compared with 0.2% in June and 0.5% in May.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI only shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods; by calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends be forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation excluding food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural market.

See also: The NBP announcement on July 2013 core inflation »

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