December Core Inflation Declines Further
NBP data: Inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 1.4% (y/y) at the end of 2012, hitting the lowest point since November 2010. The other three core inflation indices declined as well.
According to the National Bank of Poland release posted on January 16, 2013, core inflation recorded further considerable decline in December 2012. Thus:
- inflation excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to 1.9%, as against 2.2% in November and 3.0% in October;
- inflation excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 2.3%, as against 2.6% in November and 2.8% in October;
- inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.4%, as against 1.7% in November and 1.9% in October;
- the so-called trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) stood at 2.5%, as against 2.8% in November and 3.4% in October.
The CPI (consumer inflation) index as calculated by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) – announced the previous day –stood at 2.4% in December as compared with 2.8% in November and 3.4% in October.
The National Bank of Poland computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI only shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods; by calculating core inflation indices, we address price changes in various segments of this basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors. The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on such factors as the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.
See also: The NBP announcement on December 2012 core inflation »