Press conference after the July Meeting
of the Monetary Policy Council
At its meeting on 2 - 3 July 2013, the Monetary Policy Council decided to reduce the NBP interest rates by 25 basis points. The reference rate will amount to 2.50% on an annual basis.
"Today's decision to lower interest rates ends the cycle of monetary policy easing", said Prof. Marek Belka at the press conference following the meeting of the MPC. He pointed out that since November 2012 the NBP rates have fallen by altogether 225 basis points; a significant reduction, which, in the opinion of the Council is conducive to recovery in the Polish economy. "I think the current level of interest rates should continue until at least the end of this year", Prof. Belka said in response to journalists' questions, while adding that this was his private opinion.
According to the NBP President, the Polish economy has passed through its worst . "The decision to end the cycle of lowering interest rate is a sign of the MPC's optimism; a signal for the economy that the gateway to recovery is open", said Prof. Belka.
At its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council also adopted "Inflation report – July 2013". It contains a projection of inflation and GDP, which is one of the inputs to the Council's decision-making process concerning the NBP interest rates.
In line with the July projection – elaborated under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates, based on data available until 13 June 2013, inflation is likely to range, with a 50-per cent probability, between 0.6 and1.1% in 2013 (compared to 1.3- 1.9 % in the March 2013 projection), between 0.4 and 2.0% in 2014 (as against 0.8-2.4%) and between 0.7 and 2.4% in 2015 (no change on the previous projection). At the same time, the annual GDP growth will be, with a 50-per cent probability, contained within the 0.5-1.7% range in 2103 (as compared to 0.6-2.0% in the March projection), within the 1.2-3.5% range in 2014 (as against 1.4-3.7%) and within the 1.6-4.2% range in 2015 (as against 1.9-4.4%).
In the press release after the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, it was explained that in the opinion of the Council “the incoming data confirm continued low economic growth in Poland accompanied by lack of wage and inflation pressures.
The July projection, however, indicates that from the second half of 2013 – together with the expected improvement in global economic activity – a gradual acceleration of GDP growth can be expected, which will be conducive to rising inflation in the coming years.
However, despite this, a risk of inflation running below the target in the medium term persists. Taking this into consideration, the Council decided to lower the NBP interest rates again”.
The conference was attended by President of the NBP – Prof. Marek Belka and MPC members – Dr Adam Glapiński and Dr Andrzej Bratkowski.
The next decision-taking meeting of the MPC will be held on 3-4 September 2013.