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Decline in inflation expectations of private individuals

Date: 30-04-2013

NBP data: April saw again a marked decrease in inflation expectations of consumers. They place the average inflation rate expected over the next 12 months at 1.1%.

On April 30, the National Bank of Poland published its monthly release on the inflation expectations of private individuals. Respondents polled in mid-April markedly revised downward their inflation expectations for another time. The average CPI inflation index over the next 12 months, as measured by the respondents, stood at 1.1%. In March, it amounted to 1.65%, and in February – 2.2%.

The measure is set on the basis of the structure of responses provided to the survey questions by respondents and their perception of current price movements. Some respondents surveyed in April could have known February’s CPI of 1.3%, while respondents surveyed later in the month could have already known the March 2013 CPI index reading of 1.0%, released by the Central Statistical Office at the time of the survey.

The decline in the percentage of persons expecting prices to rise faster in the future than recently was a noticeable change in the response structure – in April, this view was presented by 16.4% of respondents and in March – by 19.1%. The percentage of respondents expecting prices to rise at the present pace has grown slightly (from 53.2% to 53.8%). The percentage of respondents expecting inflation to slow has decreased moderately, from 17.7% to 17.2%.

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals, entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, April 2013

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