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Low Inflation Expectations in February

Date: 28-02-2013

NBP data: The index of individuals' inflation expectations continues to fall. In February 2013, average inflation rate as expected by respondents in the next 12 months stood at 2.2%.

According to the monthly release on inflation expectations of private individuals posted by the National Bank of Poland on 28 February 2013, February was the sixth consecutive month of decline in these expectations. In August 2012, the index of private individuals' inflation expectations - constructed under the assumption that price changes as perceived by the public may be identified with current CPI inflation - rose to 4.4%, yet has been falling steadily since, reaching 3.4% in December 2012, 2.7% in January 2013 and 2.2% in February 2013.

At the time of the survey (approx. mid-February), the December 2012 CPI index of 2.4% was already known to the public.

Once again, the structure of responses to the question about the expected price changes improved. The percentage of the public supporting the view that prices will rise faster in the future than so far fell from 20.3% in January to 17.0% in February. More than half of the respondents (50.5%) believe that prices will continue to increase at the present pace. The group of optimists anticipating inflation to slow down rose from 18.6% in the previous month to 21.4% in February. The percentage of optimists is approaching its all-time peak (since1992).

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals - as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, February 2013

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