January Inflation Expectations Close to NBP Target
NBP data: The index of private individuals' inflation expectations declined for the fifth subsequent month. In January, the average inflation rate as expected by respondents in the next 12 months dropped to 2.7%.
According to the monthly release on inflation expectations of private individuals, posted by the National Bank of Poland on 31 January 2013, January saw a significant drop in the average inflation index as expected by consumers in the next 12 months. It had dropped to 2.7% in January from 3.4% recorded in December 2012. Thus, the index decreased for a fifth consecutive month, from a peak of 4.4% observed in August.
At the time of the survey (approx. mid-January), the November 2012 CPI index of 2.8% was already known to the public.
The structure of the expectations improved. The percentage of the public believing prices to rise faster in the future than recently had risen from 23.6% in December to 20.3% in January. More than a half of the respondents (51.9%) expected them to rise at the same pace as recently. The share of optimists anticipating inflation to slow down had increased from 17.9 to 18.6%.
The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals - as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.
See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, January 2013