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Inflation expectations of individuals in July

Date: 31-07-2013

NBP data: In July, inflation expectations of private individuals hovered at a level similar to June's. When translated into the language of official statics, respondents' subjective opinions put the average inflation index - as anticipated by individuals in the coming 12 months - at 0.4%

The NBP release on inflation expectations of private individuals, published on 29 July, shows these expectations to remain at the previous month’s level. According to the survey, conducted in the middle of July, the average index of consumer inflation is expected to run at 0.4% in the next 12 months – the same figure as in June. This means a levelling of a steady downward trend observed since August 2012, when future inflation was estimated at 4.4%.

In July, there was a change in the structure of answers to the survey questions about the anticipated future price movements. 16.1% of the respondents believed that prices will rise faster in the future than previously. More respondents than in the previous month, i.e. 55.1%, held that the currently observed slow price growth will not change, and 17.3% anticipated prices to slow down (in June, 20.6% of the respondents were of that opinion).

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals - as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, July 2013

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