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Inflation expectations of individuals in June

Date: 28-06-2013

NBP data: Consumer inflation expectations have been decreasing for the tenth consecutive month. In June the average inflation rate as expected by this group in the next 12 months fell to 0.4%.

According to the release on inflation expectations posted by the NBP on 28 June, individuals’ inflation expectations continue to decrease. Based on the findings of a survey conducted on behalf of the NBP at mid-June, the anticipated average CPI index over the next 12 months will reach only 0.4%. The month before, in May, it stood at 0.9%. A steady decline in the index has been recorded since August 2012, when future inflation was expected to reach 4.4%. Similar low inflation expectations were recorded in 2006.

Respondents surveyed at mid-June could have been aware of the actual April’s CPI index amounting to 0.5%, while respondents surveyed in May 2013 could have known the March 2013 CPI index reading of 1.0%

In June the structure of the survey questions about expected price movements changed only slightly. The percentage of respondents expecting prices to rise faster in the future than recently was only 15.3%. Exactly half of respondents claimed that the present slow pace of increasing prices will not change. The group of optimists expecting inflation to decrease further has grown slightly from 20.0% to 20.6%.

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, June 2013

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