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Inflation Expectations Drop Further

Date: 29-03-2013

NBP data: March was the seventh consecutive month of decline in private individuals' inflation expectations. Respondents place average inflation rate as expected over the next 12 months at 1.6%.

On 29 March, the National Bank of Poland posted its monthly release on inflation expectations of private individuals. March was the seventh consecutive month of decrease in these expectations. In August 2012, the index of private individuals' inflation expectations – computed under the assumption that price changes as perceived by the public may be identified with current CPI inflation – peaked at 4.4% and has been falling steadily since, dropping to 3.4% in December 2012, to 2.7% in January 2013, 2.2% in February and 1.6% in March.

At the time of the survey (approx. mid-March), the January 2013 CPI index reading of 1.7% was already known to the public.

The structure of responses to the survey questions about expected price movements changed only slightly. There was a slight rise – from 17.0% in February to 19.1% in March – in the percentage of the public expecting prices to rise faster in the coming 12 months than recently. The group of respondents believing that prices will continue to increase at the present pace consolidated (expanding from 50.5% to 53.2%). There was a decrease – from 21.4%% to 17.7% - in the percentage of the public expecting inflation to slow down.

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, March 2013

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