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Inflation Expectations Individuals Continue to Sink

Date: 31-05-2013

NBP data: In May, consumer inflation expectations dropped to the lowest point since September 2006. The average inflation rate as expected by this group in the next 12 months was put at 0.9%

According to the release on inflation expectations posted by the NBP on 31 of the month, May was the ninth consecutive month of decline in these expectations. Based on the findings of a survey conducted at mid-month, the average CPI index as anticipated by respondents in the subsequent 12 months was calculated at 0.9%. The month before, in April it stood at 1.1%, while in March it reached 1.6% The index has been on a steady decline since August 2012, when it amounted to 4.4%. Currently it is at the lowest point since September 2006.

The index is determined based on the structure of responses to survey questions and consumers' perceptions of current price changes. At the time of the survey, respondents could be aware of the March CPI index reading of 1.0%.

Changes in the structure of the answers to the survey questions resembled those observed in the previous month. The group of pessimists believing prices to accelerate in the future continued to shrink. In April, 16.4% of the respondents represented this view, while in May the percentage dropped to 14.9%. The share of optimists anticipating prices to slow down consolidated, posting 20% in May compared to 17.2% a month before. More than a half, i.e. 52.2% of the respondents expressed expectations of prices rising at the same pace as before.

The National Bank of Poland examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals - as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, May 2013

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