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Inflation expectations of private individuals

Date: 29-11-2013

NBP data: Consumers surveyed by NBP in mid-November expect the average inflation index to reach 0.7% over the next 12 months.

The NBP release on inflation expectations of private individuals, published on 29 November 2013, confirms that they are largely determined by the latest GUS data on CPI inflation. The expectations have remained stable at low levels since the spring of this year.

The survey, conducted in mid-November, puts the average index of consumer inflation over the next 12 months at 0.7%. In October, the figure was 0.9%,and in September, 1.0%. In the quantification procedure of inflation expectations it was assumed that at the time of the survey participants were aware of the current inflation index of 0.8%

November brought a slight change in the structure of the answers to survey questions. The percentage of the respondents expecting prices to rise faster over the next 12 months than so far had fallen –14.1% of the respondents were of this opinion, while a month before the figure had stood at 17.7% More than half of the respondents, i.e. 51% (51.3% a month ago) said that prices would continue to rise at the previous rate, whereas 18.2% – that price growth would slow down (in October, 15.1% of the respondents represented this opinion). Out of those questioned, 6.7% do not expect any price changes (4.5% a month ago), while 0.1% believe the prices to decrease (in the previous survey, 0.4%).

Narodowy Bank Polski examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals – as well as entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, November 2013

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