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Inflation expectations of private individuals

Date: 31-10-2013

NBP data: Consumers surveyed at mid-October by NBP anticipate that average CPI index over the next 12 months will reach 0.9%.

The NBP release on inflation expectations of private individuals published on 31 October 2013 confirms that these are largely affected by the latest GUS data on current inflation (CPI) and have remained at a very low level since spring this year.

According to the survey, conducted at mid-October, the average CPI index anticipated by the respondents over the next 12 months will reach 0.9%. This compares to 1.0 % in the previous month and 0.2% in August (which was the lowest point since the initial 1992 survey). The expectations quantification procedure assumed that at the time of the last survey the current rate of inflation known to the respondents was 1%. This figure is the average of the annual CPI in August and September 2013 weighted by the shares of the respondents who participated in the survey before and after the publication of the latest GUS data on inflation.

The structure of responses to the survey question changed only slightly. In October, 17.7% of the respondents (16.1% in September) believed that prices will rise faster over the 12-month period than at present, approx. 51.3% of the respondents (50% in the previous month) expected the same rate of price growth, while 15.1% (17.6% in September) anticipated prices to go down. Prices are expected to stay at the present level by 4.5% of the respondents (4.7% in the previous month) and to go down by 0.4% of them (compared to 0.6% in the previous survey).

Narodowy Bank Polski examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals, entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, October 2013

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