Narodowy Bank Polski

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Inflation expectations of private individuals

Date: 30-09-2013

The NBP release on inflation expectations of private individuals, published on 30 September, confirms that they are largely affected by the latest GUS data on current inflation and have remained very low since spring 2013.

A survey conducted in mid-September puts the average index of consumer inflation as expected over the next 12 months at 1.0% This compares to 0.2% registered in the previous month which was the record low since the initial 1992 survey. At the time of the survey, respondents may have known the actual July CPI reading, which stood at 1.1%, whereas the June CPI was 0.2%.

The structure of responses to the survey question shows a slight change. In September, 16.1% of the respondents believed that prices will rise more steeply in the future (over the 12-month period), approx. 50% expected the current very low inflation to remain unchanged, while 17.6% anticipated price growth to slow down even further.

Narodowy Bank Polski examines, on a regular basis, inflation expectations of individuals, entrepreneurs, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These constitute one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: ► Inflation expectations of individuals, September 2013

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