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Core inflation in November 2014

Date: 16-12-2014

NBP data: In November, inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.4% (y/y), representing a 0.2 pp increase on the October figure. The CPI index stood at -0.6% y/y, thus remaining at the previous month’s level.

On 16 December, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in November 2014. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to -0.9%, as against -0.8% a month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices decreased to -0.3% from -0.1% observed in October;
  • net of food and energy prices, amounted to 0.4%, i.e. 0.2 pp more than in October;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and the lowest growth rates) stood at – 0.2%, as against 0.0%, the month before.

The November CPI index, announced by GUS on 15 December, amounted to -0.6% (y/y), i.e. a rate unchanged on the month before.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI only shows average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Also food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and worldwide agricultural markets.

See also: The NBP announcement on November 2014 core inflation »

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