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Core inflation in October 2015

Date: 16-11-2015

NBP data: In October, inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 0.3%. In the analysed period, the CPI index amounted to -0.7% (y/y).

On 16 November 2015, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in October 2015. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to -1.0%, as against -1,1% the month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to -0.2%, i.e. a rate unchanged on the month before;
  • net of food and energy prices stood at 0.3%, as against 0.2% the month before;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterized by the lowest and the highest growth rates) stood at -0.1%, thus remaining at the previous month’s level.

The October CPI index, announced by GUS on 13 November 2015, amounted to -0.7% (y/y), whereas the flash estimates posted by GUS on 2 November envisaged the rate of CPI inflation to reach -0.8%.

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating the core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecasted more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven, for example, by short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: The October 2015 core inflation data »

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