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Consumer inflation expectations in June 2015

Date: 30-06-2015

NBP data: Consumers surveyed by GUS in the first half of June expect prices to rise only slightly over the next 12 months. The expectations index has reached the lowest value in the survey’s history.

The NBP release on inflation expectations of consumers, published on 30 June 2015, shows a record low level for the expectations index, that is the difference between the percentage of consumers expecting prices to rise faster than at present and the sum total of the percentage of consumers expecting prices to rise slower than at present, remain the same, or fall. In June the index stood at -47 percentage points.

The results of the quantification of the survey data show that inflation expectations have remained low – i.e. below the tolerance band for deviations from the NBP inflation target – for two years now. Quantification of the data obtained in the latest GUS survey conducted in the first half of June shows the average inflation index as expected by consumers over the next 12 months to stand at around 0.2%.

The expectations quantification procedure, which translates respondents’ subjective perceptions into the language of official inflation statistics, assumes that the price change in the preceding 12 months as perceived by consumers equals the CPI index available at the time of the survey. In June 2015, this figure was negative at -1.1 proc. Such a result introduces some difficulty to the interpretation of the survey results. This is because, in line with the structure of the survey question, respondents who expect a price growth are to specify whether growth will be faster, similar or weaker than presently observed. With this in mind, the June quantification procedure used the last recorded positive rate of current inflation (i.e. the August 2014 figure of 0.3%) to represent the perceived current inflation instead of the negative rate of inflation available at the time of the survey. The technical nature of this operation renders the objectivized assessment of inflation expectations more tentative, and the quantification results should be treated as an approximation.

Narodowy Bank Polski examines on a regular basis inflation expectations of not only consumers, but also the business community, financial analysts and professional forecasters. These provide one of the inputs to the monetary policy decision-making process.

See also: Consumer inflation expectations in June 2015

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