Conference following the July meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
At its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep policy interest rates unchanged.
At the meeting held on 6 and 7 July, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. Thus, the reference rate stands at 1.50%, the lombard rate at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%.
“In the Council’s assessment, the CPI growth will remain negative in the coming quarters due to the earlier substantial decline in the global commodity prices. At the same time, GDP growth is expected to remain stable in the coming quarters, following a temporary deceleration at the beginning of the year. Consumer demand will continue to be the main driver of economic growth, supported by rising employment, the forecasted acceleration of wage growth and an increase in social benefits. This notwithstanding, the downside risks to the global economic conditions, aggravated by the uncertainty about the effects of the UK’s EU referendum, and the volatility of commodity prices, remain the sources of uncertainty for the economy and the price developments. Council members confirm their assessment that – given the available data and forecasts – the current level of interest rates helped to keep the Polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintain macroeconomic stability.”
During the press conference, Professor Adam Glapiński judged that the best policy for the country and the economy is the policy of ‘wait and see’. When asked about a change in the level of interest rates, he said: “The path for a change in the level of interest rates is open in both directions, but it doesn't look like any move has to be made.”
During the July meeting, the Council became acquainted with the latest projection of inflation and GDP prepared by the NBP Economic Institute. In line with the projection, there is a 50-percent probability that the annual price growth will be in the range of -0.9 ÷ -0.3% in 2016, 0.3 – 2.2% in 2017 and 0.3 – 2.6% in 2018. In turn, the annual GDP growth rate – in line with this projection – will be with a 50-percent probability in the range of 2.6 – 3.8% in 2016, 2.4 – 4.5% in 2017 and 2.1 – 4.3% in 2018.
“Members of the Monetary Policy Council formulate their opinions on the basis of the information received from the NBP Economic Institute … Personally, I expect that the GDP growth rate will be similar to what the IMF forecasts, in other words, 3.6 percent,” said Professor Adam Glapiński during the conference.
Apart from the MPC Chairman, the conference was attended by Professor Jerzy Osiatyński and Dr. Łukasz Hardt.
The next MPC meeting is scheduled for 6-7 September 2016.