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Core inflation in February 2017

Date: 15-03-2017

NBP data: In February, inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 0.3% (y/y). In the analysed period, the CPI index amounted to 2.2% (y/y).

On 15 March 2017, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in February 2017. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to 2.4%, as compared to 1.8% the month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 0.9%, as compared to 0.8% the month before;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.3%, as compared to 0.2% the month before;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterized by the lowest and the highest growth rates) stood at 1.3%, as compared to 1.2% the previous month.

Inflation excluding administered prices was revised due to changes in the list of goods and services classified under administered prices. The changes were made by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) based on the recommendations of Eurostat and the current share of administered expenditure in the total expenditure incurred in individual categories of goods and services (COICOP).

The preliminary estimate of the CPI index in January 2017 was revised downwards by 0.1 pp (to 1.7% y/y against the GUS estimate of 1.8% y/y in February 2017). The increase in inflation in February 2017 was mainly due to the continued rise in energy and food prices (primarily prices of vegetables).

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating the core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecasted more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven, for example, by short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: Core inflation data »

NBP interest rates

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Lombard rate 7.25
Deposit rate 6.25
Rediscount rate 6.80
Discount rate 6.85

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