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Core inflation in September 2018

Date: 16-10-2018

NBP data: In September 2018, inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 0.8%. In the analysed period, the CPI index amounted to 1.9% (y/y).

On 16 October 2018, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on core inflation indices in September 2018. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices amounted to 1.9%, as against 2.2% the month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 1.4%, as against 1.3% the month before;
  • net of food and energy prices amounted to 0.8%, compared to 0.9% the month before;
  • the so-called 15-percent trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterized by the lowest and the highest growth rates) stood at 1.8%, compared to 1.7% the previous month.

The decline in inflation was mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of prices of fuel for private means of transport (by 3.3 p.p. to 12.0% y/y; negative base effect) and the slowdown in the growth of prices of services (by 0.3 pp. to 1.4% y/y; fall in prices of telecommunications services). In September 2018, price growth of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased (by 0.2 pp. to 2.3% y/y). Price growth of non-food goods also increased slightly (by 0.1 p.p. to 0.3% y/y).

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating the core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecasted more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven, for example, by short-lived price hikes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures movements in prices which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent, among other things, on the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural markets.

See also: Core inflation data »

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