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Financial Stability Report. December 2018

Date: 30-11-2018

The latest edition of the Financial Stability Report presents analyses and assessments based on data available as of 30 September 2018. Poland’s real economy and financial system remain balanced. The relation of household and coroporate debt to GDP is moderate. The rate of growth in lending neither creates imbalances in the economy and in the financial system, nor it impedes economic growth. However, trends in certain credit categories need to be particularly monitored. This refers to the dynamic growth of high-value and long-term consumer loans. Real estate loans granted in the low interest rates environment amid robust activity in this market also require attention. The economic risk related to foreign exchange denominated loans is continuously abating, due to systematic decline of this portfolio and its good quality. The risk associated with this portfolio could stem from introduction of legal solutions, that would negatively impact the stability of the banking sector.

The capital position of Polish banking system is good and is accompanied by low leverage. In the medium-term the capacity to accumulate capital and meet the MREL requirement may be challenging to banks, particulatly those with lower profitability.

The structural features of the domestic financial system support its stability, though the magnitude of cross-sectoral linkages has recently increased. Given the role of the government sector in the financial stability net, the growing role of the Treasury in the financial system is a new circumstance for financial safety net institutions. In such a situation separating ownership and supervisory functions remains important.

Narodowy Bank Polski presents a number of recommendations aimed at preserving the stability of Poland’s financial system. They pertain to the following:

  • the conduct of a prudent lending policy by banks and monitoring of risk associated with:
    • high-value and long-term consumer loans, including the detailed verification of the purpose of the loans,
    • real estate loans, including ensuring that borrowers hold income buffers to protect them in the event of a significant interest rate increase,
  • the restructuring of FX housing loans by way of voluntary agreements between banks and borrowers, in line with the Financial Stability Committee recommendation of 13 January 2017,
  • the closer integration of the cooperative banking sector, and the broadest possible participation of cooperative banks in the IPSs,
  • the need for non-IPS cooperative banks to take actions aimed at ensuring their operating compliance with the legislative requirements before the current association agreements expire this year,
  • a continuation of the restructuring of the credit unions sector, while minimising public costs,
  • the mitigation of reputational risk by financial institutions by tailoring their products to the client profile and by appropriate disclosures of risk associated with a given investment product,
  • the gradual implementation of the MREL in order to avoid the cliff effect before the agreed deadline of 2023,
  • the integration of financial supervision into the NBP structure.

Financial Stability Report. December 2018

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 6.75
Lombard rate 7.25
Deposit rate 6.25
Rediscount rate 6.80
Discount rate 6.85

Exchange rates

Table of 2023-02-06
1 EUR4.7195
1 USD4.3833
1 CHF4.7458
1 GBP5.2764
100 JPY3.3222

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Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa

+48 22 185 10 00
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
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