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Core inflation in June 2019

Date: 16-07-2019

NBP data: In June 2019, inflation net of food and energy prices stood at 1.9%. The CPI index in the analysed period stood at 2.6% (y/y).

On 16 July 2019, Narodowy Bank Polski posted data on June core inflation levels. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • excluding administered (state-controlled) prices stood at 2.8%, compared to 2.5% the month before;
  • excluding the most volatile prices amounted to 2.1%, compared to 1.9% the month before;
  • inflation net of food and Energy prices amounted to 1.9%, compared to 1.7% the month before;
  • the so-called 15% trimmed mean (excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the highest and lowest growth rates) was running at 2.1%, compared to 2.2% the month before.

In June 2019, CPI inflation stood at 2.6% y/y (a rise of 0.2 percentage points on May 2019). The rise in CPI inflation in June 2019 was mainly driven by further growth in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (vegetables and fruit, above all) and growth in the prices of services. The strongest price growth was recorded in telecommunications services, services related to recreation and culture (mainly organized tourism), and administered housing services. The decrease in the growth of fuel prices had the opposite effect (the negative base effect).

The rise in the CPI index was accompanied by an increase in three of the core inflation measures published by NBP and a slight decrease in one of them. Inflation excluding food and energy prices was running at 1.9% y/y in June 2019 (compared to 1.7% y/y in May 2019).

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis in order to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI index shows the average price movement across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. By calculating core inflation indices we can address price changes in various segments of the basket. Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely, and future trends forecast more accurately. Furthermore, it can be determined to what degree the observed inflation trend is a lasting phenomenon, and to what extent it is driven by e.g. short-lived price changes triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures trends in those prices of goods and services which are fairly responsive to the central bank's monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically, but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.

See also: Core inflation data »

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