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Core inflation in November 2020

Date: 16-12-2020

NBP data: In November 2020, inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 4.3%. In the period under analysis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 3.0% (y/y).

On 16 December 2020, Narodowy Bank Polski published data on core inflation indices in November 2020. In year-on-year terms, inflation:

  • net of administered (state-controlled) prices, amounted to 2.1%, compared to 2.1% a month earlier;
  • net of the most volatile prices, amounted to 2.9%, compared to 3.0% a month earlier;
  • net of food and energy prices, amounted to 4.3%, compared to 4.2% a month earlier;
  • the so-called 15% trimmed mean, excluding the impact of 15% of the price basket characterised by the lowest and highest growth rates, amounted to 3.0%, compared to 3.1% a month earlier.

In November 2020, CPI inflation decreased slightly, to 3.0% y/y (by 0.1 percentage points from October 2020). The decrease in the CPI was driven by weaker food price growth (by 0.4 percentage points, to 2.0% y/y), mainly as a result of weaker annual growth in the prices of meat (driven by the ASF epidemic) and fruit (due to an increase in supply in the current economic season). In November 2020 inflation net of food and energy prices increased by 0.1 percentage points, to 4.3% y/y, due to the stronger annual growth in the prices of services (mainly in the group of restaurants and hotels), amid continued decline in the annual growth in the prices of goods (most of all, clothing and footwear).

Narodowy Bank Polski computes the four core inflation indices on a monthly basis to highlight the nature of inflation developments in Poland. The CPI shows average price movements across the whole broad basket of consumer goods. When calculating core inflation indices, price changes in various segments of the basket are analysed, Thus, sources of inflation can be identified more precisely and future trends forecast more accurately. This also helps to find to what degree inflation is permanent and to what extent it is determined, for example, by price changes of a short duration triggered by incidental factors.

The core inflation measure most frequently used by analysts is inflation net of food and energy prices. It captures trends in the prices of those goods and services that are fairly responsive to the central bank’s monetary policy. On the other hand, energy prices (including fuel prices) are not set domestically but determined in the global markets, sometimes as a result of speculation. Food prices are largely dependent on, among other things, the weather and conditions prevailing in the domestic and global agricultural market.

See also: Core inflation data »

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