Narodowy Bank Polski

Monetary Policy

Inflation and GDP projection - July 2016

The inflation and GDP projection is prepared by the Economic Institute of the National Bank of Poland and presents a forecast of economic developments under the assumption of constant NBP interest rates. The work involved in the creation of the projection is supervised by the director of the Economic Institute and coordinated by the Bureau of Macroeconomic Forecast. The Management Board of the NBP approves the projection to be submitted to the Monetary Policy Council. The projection constitutes one of the inputs to the Monetary Policy Council's decision making process concerning NBP interest rates.

The projection is prepared three times a year and is published in March, July and November in the fourth chapter of the Inflation Report. The projection covers economic developments up to three years ahead from the publication date.

The projection is based on the macroeconometric model NECMOD.

The current inflation and GDP projection (published on the 11th of July 2016)

CPI inflation y/y (%)
GDP y/y(%)

2016 2017 2018
CPI inflation y/y (%) -0,5 1,3 1,5
GDP y/y (%) 3,2 3,5 3,3
interest rate WIBOR* (%) 1,69 1,69 1,69
* projection prepared under the assumption of constant interest rates

The next inflation and GDP projection will be published on 14th of November 2016 at 10 o'clock.

Published in Polish and English by Narodowy Bank Polski, tel: +48 22 185 28 88, +48 22 185 23 35

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 6.75
Lombard rate 7.25
Deposit rate 6.25
Rediscount rate 6.80
Discount rate 6.85

Exchange rates

Table of 2023-02-03
1 EUR4.6920
1 USD4.2928
1 CHF4.7023
1 GBP5.2571
100 JPY3.3391

Economic outlook

Monthly data

Quarterly data

Financial markets



Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa

+48 22 185 10 00
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
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