Narodowy Bank Polski

Monetary Policy

Inflation and GDP projection - July 2020

The inflation and GDP projection is prepared by the Economic Analysis Department of the National Bank of Poland and presents a forecast of economic developments under the assumption of constant NBP interest rates. The work involved in the creation of the projection is coordinated by the Macroeconomic Forecasts Division. The Management Board of the NBP approves the projection to be submitted to the Monetary Policy Council. The projection constitutes one of the inputs to the Monetary Policy Council's decision making process concerning NBP interest rates.

The projection is prepared three times a year and is published in March, July and November in the fourth chapter of the Inflation Report. The projection covers economic developments up to three years ahead from the publication date.

The projection is based on the macroeconometric model NECMOD.

The current inflation and GDP projection (published on the 17th of July 2020)

CPI inflation y/y (%)
Level of real GDP (Q4 2019 = 100)
CPI inflation y/y (%) GDP y/y(%)
2020 2021 2022
CPI inflation y/y (%) 3.3 1.5 2.1
GDP y/y (%) -5.4 4.9 3.7
interest rate WIBOR 3M*(%) 0.66 0.22 0.22

* projection prepared under the assumption of constant interest rates

The next inflation and GDP projection will be published on 10th of November 2020 at 11:00.

Published in Polish and English by Narodowy Bank Polski, tel: +48 22 185 28 88, +48 22 185 23 35

NBP interest rates

Reference rate 6.75
Lombard rate 7.25
Deposit rate 6.25
Rediscount rate 6.80
Discount rate 6.85

Exchange rates

Table of 2023-01-27
1 EUR4.7076
1 USD4.3252
1 CHF4.6961
1 GBP5.3505
100 JPY3.3309

Economic outlook

Monthly data

Quarterly data

Financial markets



Narodowy Bank Polski
Świętokrzyska 11/21
00-919 Warszawa

+48 22 185 10 00
NIP: 525-000-81-98
REGON: 000002223
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